Generative AI models like GPT-4, Gemini or Claude 3 have had phenomenal growth in the past few years and their capabilities have grown exponentially from coding to generating images to music creation. With enough computing, there seems to be no limit to what gen AI can achieve. But does that also mean that the role of a Software Developer is in danger?
The downside to this unprecedented growth is that entry-level software development jobs may become obsolete. We all know that Software development is one of the most sought-after job roles in the world right now, (almost) everyone wants to be a techie in the 21st century.
There is intense competition between professionals for development roles in FAANG companies. However, in the past few years, there have been some worrying trends that many believe to be the impact of the growth of artificial intelligence.
In the last 20yrs, "study CS and work in tech" became a "path" to wealth
— Deedy (@deedydas) May 2, 2024
Now:
—BigTech did layoffs, aren't hiring
—Tech job postings are ~40% of '21
—Startups often prefer tenured hires
—Huge pipeline of CS majors: 40% of MIT
Winter is coming for software engineering.
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1/5 pic.twitter.com/VPU6WWuTTl
The layoff news from major tech companies further gives this speculation credibility. Most recently, Google reportedly laid off staff across key teams like Flutter, Dart, Python, etc. The big question everyone seems to be asking is, will AI replace the programmers?
How is AI disrupting the Software Industry?
In most developed and developing countries, people believe computer science to be the best way to earn money fast. Since the 21st century, the industry has been rapidly growing with billion-dollar start-ups hiring hundreds of developers across domains. CS majors and computer engineers enter the workforce by the droves each year.
The concerns stems from the fact that AI is capable of largely reducing the manpower required for tasks. Something that needed 4-5 junior developers will now need an experienced software engineer with an AI copilot.
Tools like GitHub’s copilot and now the new workspace copilot are already reducing development pipeline durations by increasing the efficiency of the work.
We may have the analogy of comparing AI to the introduction of tractors in farming. Think of programmers as farmers before tractors. Now, 1 farmer with a tractor can do the work of 10. As is the case with software developers.
Take a look at tools like Automated AI Coding Tools like Devin, Devika and SWE-Agent, which can develop and optimize code in a matter of minutes. With so many of these tools available at a fraction of the amount needed to hire a new developer, why wouldn’t companies scale down their workforce?
AI can be used to write boilerplate code and automate repetitive tasks, leaving the design and planning to senior developers.
Will there be no jobs for CS grads?
Ben Goertzel, SingularityNET founder and CEO, recently said that AI could replace 80% of the workforce in the next several years. If this is true, it won’t be abrupt; no one is losing their jobs overnight.
However, most people believe that a shift is needed to make software jobs more in line with using and developing AI rather than brute effort writing standard system design code.
In an interview last year with the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, Elon Musk declared there will come a time when “no job is needed,” thanks to an AI “magic genie that can do everything you want.” Musk added that as a result, “We won’t have universal basic income, we’ll have universal high income”
It is highly unlikely that what Elon said will come to pass. There are several reasons for this, the major one being we have seen this before! These concerns erupted at the beginning of each technological revolution.
Back when computer science was gaining momentum, researchers speculated that 50% of manual jobs would become computerized, leaving people jobless. The jobs did become computerized but that in turn created more opportunities. Manual record-keeping jobs became data entry jobs.
MIT Technology Review also explained in their article why AI won’t take over everyone’s jobs. New development always creates new opportunities while optimizing processes and removing obsolete jobs. That is exactly what is happening to the software industry.
Dr Yann LeCun, Vice President and Chief AI Scientist at Meta said that AI does not have the cognitive ability to replace the human mind in terms of analysis, and critical thinking.
AI won't take your job. But it will transform it and create new ones.
— Yann LeCun (@ylecun) May 21, 2023
This NYT article has quotes from economists who specialize in the effect of technology on labor markets, such David Autor, Daron Acemoglu, and @erikbryn :
"Everybody I talk to, supersmart people, doctors,…
Last year, Harvard Business Review also did a piece on the possibility of AI taking over humans. They very aptly said, “AI Won’t Replace Humans — But Humans With AI Will Replace Humans Without AI”
It is inaccurate to say that jobs in CS will be reduced. We ourselves think that more jobs will be created but there will be a marked shift in the functionality of roles offered. The roles of junior programmers and junior software developers are likely to fade into obscurity.
Till we found out what will happen, it is best to be ready for what’s coming. So, why don’t some AI to your coding skills? We curated a list of some amazing AI coding tools that you must check.
Conclusion
While there are conflicting opinions about the extent of the AI impact, experts agree that jobs will be hugely changed by AI. There are now two ways to think about this. Do we trust what previous technological innovations have shown us, and believe that opportunities will shift with technology, or do we think AI is truly capable of replacing humans entirely?
